Will This Be the ‘Indian Century’? Four Key Questions

It is a turning point the world has not seen in centuries, and is unlikely to see again for centuries more.

India is on the cusp of passing China in population, according to the latest U.N. estimates. At 1.428 billion people, India has already edged past China’s mainland, the data show.

With China’s population declining, the margin between the two countries will only grow as India becomes the most populous country in history. What had long been the world’s largest democracy is now, simply, the world’s largest everything.

Can India take advantage of its size?

India’s growth curve is the envy of aging countries like China, but the demographic future differs by region of the country.

There was a time when India and China wanted to suppress the rate of population growth, by reducing the number of births. That era has long receded.

The gentle slope of the demographic curve propelling India into first place looks enviable to the many developed nations that are rapidly aging. Indians are living longer, and the number of babies being born each year has barely budged.

In some of India’s regions, the population is still growing too fast for their economies, producing many more able-bodied young people than there are jobs to occupy them. In other parts, however – especially the better-developed south, where women have more education and family planning programs have proved successful – the population has already peaked. There, young families rarely produce more than two children.

The physical needs of nearly a billion and a half people are imposing a terrible strain on India’s environment. But as the country lifts itself from deepest poverty, it is no longer subject to the famines of old. Instead, its future as far and away the world’s biggest work force is leading some to hope for an “Indian century” in the making.

Does India stand to reap a “demographic dividend”?

Having a fast-expanding young work force could be a big opportunity — or a disaster.

India is a country primed to work. More than two-thirds of all Indians are between the ages of 15 and 59. The country’s ratio of children and retirees to working-age adults is remarkably low.

But this opportunity comes with huge challenges. That “demographic dividend” could instead become something like a disaster. In some recent years, India has squeaked past China to claim the title of fastest-growing major economy. But it has never expanded fast enough to produce sufficient formal employment for everyone. The country needs about nine million new jobs every year just to keep pace; the annual shortfall helps relegate many to India’s old standby, agricultural work.

Most people in India lack the means to be “unemployed” – in the work force but without a job. Underemployment is the more discreet danger. Wages have been stagnant for eight years, according to an analysis by Jean Drèze, an economist at Delhi University. Economic growth without an equivalent increase in jobs makes India’s massively unequal society even more so, raising the potential for unrest.

Can India get more women into the work force?

Women work outside the home at lower rates in India than almost any other country, a huge roadblock for economic expansion.

India has one of the world’s lowest rates of formal employment for women: about one in five. China’s is almost double that rate, higher than the United States’ and the world average. An economy cannot meet its potential when it draws on the contributions of so few women.

Also worrisome, the rate has actually declined in India even as most of the country’s economic conditions have improved. The explanation favored by economists is that the jobs most women take are so poorly paid that as soon as a family can do without the extra income, wives stop working outside the home.

That does not mean women in India do not work hard. They are a visible presence in the 41 percent of society that is still in agriculture, and they carry nearly all of the household burdens. But so long as these women remain outside the formal work force, they cannot enter its most productive categories, in industry and services. Improved access to family planning, better education, efforts to change societal attitudes and measures to ensure women’s safety could help more women take on formal work.

Can India chart its own path to prosperity?

India’s economic story will not be a repetition of China’s — which could offer advantages.

Western countries are now rushing to embrace India as an alternative to China. But the obstacles that have kept India from following the same program over the past 30 years remain in place: ineffective governance, insufficient infrastructure, and scanty spending on primary education and health.

A “Make in India” program championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, now in its eighth year, has been slow to take off.

India’s economic story, however it turns out, will not be a repetition of China’s. There are many ways in which India can rise, especially with industrial manufacturing no longer occupying the central role in the world economy that it once did.

Services now make up a huge and exciting part of the Indian economy, augmented by a low-cost digital infrastructure that India developed on its own. Other glimmers are also emerging: Chip makers are looking to India as a high-end substitute for China; online services are allowing millions of young Indians to work abroad without leaving home; and even life in India’s villages is becoming more urbanized by the year.

The only certainty about the new biggest country in the world is that it will be unlike any that came before it.

生词记录

on the cusp 分界线

edge 缓慢发展，徐徐移动；优势，优越之处

margin 差数，差额

populous 人口稠密的

demographic 人口的，人口学的；族舞

recede 逐渐远离，变得模糊，逐渐淡漠

slope 山坡

budge 使改变主意；使轻微移动

able-bodied 体格健全的，强壮的

impose 推行，强制实行；强加于；勉强，打扰，麻烦

strain 压力，重负；品种；旋律，曲调

famine 饥荒

squeak 勉强通过，侥幸成功

relegate 使贬职，使降级

discreet 谨慎的，小心的

stagnant 停滞的

roadblock 路障

chart 计划行动步骤，制定行动计划；上榜；图表，示意图

prosperity 成功，繁荣，昌盛

scanty 少量的，不足的，缺乏的

champion 支持，声援，捍卫

augment 提高，增大，加强

glimmer 微弱的迹象，一丝，一线

substitute 替代品；同···代替